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Trump has historically reserved his tariff ire for countries with which the United States runs a negative trade balance. Brazil is not one.

Analysts say ideological considerations, not economics, are behind the US president's actions in defense of Bolsonaro, dubbed the "Trump of the Tropics."

- Firm friends -

"Brazil came up on Trump's radar now because Bolsonaro's trial is advancing and there are Republican lawmakers who brought the issue to the White House," Leonardo Paz, a political scientist at Brazil's Getulio Vargas Foundation, told AFP. 

Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president's son and a Brazilian congressman, recently moved to the United States where he lobbies for pressure on Brasilia and the judges presiding over his father's coup trial. 

Lula blames Bolsonaro's son for troubling the bilateral waters, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has ordered an investigation into whether the US-based campaign constitutes obstruction of justice.

Moraes is an arch foe of Bolsonaro, who has labeled the justice a "dictator."

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke in May of a "great possibility" of sanctions against Moraes, who has clashed repeatedly with rightwingers and former Trump ally Elon Musk in a quest to stamp out online disinformation.

Bolsonaro calls Trump a "friend" and says they are both victims of "persecution."

- 'Non-economic reasons' -

In his missive to Lula, Trump complained of "a very unfair trade relationship" with Brazil.

But official Brazilian figures show a near two-decade sustained surplus in favor of the United States. Last year, it was almost $284 million.

The United States is Brazil's third-largest trading partner after China and the European Union. 

It imports mainly crude oil and semi-finished iron and steel products from the South American powerhouse.

Brazil in turn primarily imports non-electric engines and machines, and fuel from up north.

In a sign of Brazilian business jitters, the Sao Paulo Federation of Industries called Thursday for a "calm" response to the "non-economic reasons" for Trump's tariffs.

Lula has said Brazil would be willing to reciprocate, in spite of Trump's warning of further escalation if it did so.

- Free speech tussle -

Trump also complained of Brazilian "attacks" on free speech and "hundreds of SECRET and UNLAWFUL censorship orders to US media platforms" issued by Brazil's Supreme Court.

Last month, the court toughened social media regulation, upping the accountability of platforms for user content in a groundbreaking case for Latin America on the spread of fake news and hate speech.

Last year, Moraes blocked Musk's X platform for 40 days for failing to comply with a series of court orders against online disinformation.

He had also ordered the suspension in Brazil of Rumble, a video-sharing platform popular with conservative and far-right voices -- including Trump's son Don Jr. -- over its refusal to block a user accused of spreading disinformation.

Detractors accuse the judge of running a campaign to stifle free speech.

- BRICS brawl -

"It didn't help that the BRICS summit was held in Brazil at a time a narrative exists in the United States portraying the bloc as anti-Western," said Paz.

Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, the group on Sunday spoke out against Trump's "indiscriminate" tariff hikes, prompting the president to threaten further trade penalties.

Members China, Russia and India refrained from hitting back, but Lula took it upon himself to defend the "sovereign" nature of BRICS governments, insisting: "We don't want an emperor."

Behind the scenes, Brasilia has been negotiating with Washington for months to try and avoid the worst of Trump's tariff war.

A member of Lula's entourage told AFP that Trump's attack on Brazil was partly inspired by "discomfort caused by the strength of the BRICS," whose members account for about half the world's population and 40 percent of global economic output.

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